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His polling bias corrected graph shows this at present.
I think I have the legend right, I wish Danyl would provide a key.
Come close to the election and on election night their vote contracts as the undecided, wavering, and uncontactable people make their decision plain.
At present I’d guess that they will get between 43% and 46% of the vote depending on what happens in the next 67 days.
In Ōhariu electorate a recent Tally Room assessment showed a 0.29% margin for United Future against Labour after the boundary changes are in effect.
This is based on booth analysis from the last election.
Journalists’ ideal result for New Zealand First on September 20 is 5.01 per cent in the party vote on the night, with the balance of power, and 4.98 per cent in the final count two weeks later.
If New Zealand First then requested a judicial recount, election uncertainty would make news well into October.
Dunne has been in alliance with National for the past six years.
My guess is that it just depends on how well National can convince their remaining stubborn National voters (about 19.65% in 2011 based on the new boundaries) to flip to United Future.
But based on the performance of Peter Dunne in recent elections, he doesn’t look that viable.
It is not yet clear whether National will fight to win the seat, or if they will see a benefit in running dead to allow Dunne to retain his seat.
If United Future (as polling has suggested) polls so poorly that they qualify for zero seats, his election in Ōhariu would effectively create a ‘bonus’ seat for the centre-right government, whereas a National candidate winning the seat would see the number of National list MPs reduced by one.